Sweden is heading for a change of government. Final results confirmed on September 17 gave the country’s four left-leaning opposition parties 176 of the 349 seats in the Riksdag, a three-seat edge over the parties that formed or supported Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right administration. Kristersson has said he will resign, clearing the way for Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson to try to form a government.
The margin could hardly have been thinner. Roughly 50,000 votes separated the two blocs in a country of about 10.6 million people, according to reporting by Al Jazeera, and preliminary counts on election night had the gap at just a single seat before the final tally widened it slightly.
How the votes fell
The Social Democrats remained the largest single party, taking close to 28 percent of the vote in preliminary figures, even though the party lost some ground compared with 2022. The Moderates, Kristersson’s party, finished second at just under 20 percent.
The most notable shift came on the populist right. The Sweden Democrats, whose parliamentary support had underpinned Kristersson’s government, won about 17.5 percent, a drop of around three percentage points. It is the first time the anti-immigration party has lost support since it entered parliament in 2010, a reversal that changes the arithmetic of Swedish politics after more than a decade of steady gains.
Smaller parties on both sides gained. The Left Party, the Greens, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals all added seats in the preliminary count, while the Centre Party, which sits with the left bloc this time, edged up as well.
What happens next in the Riksdag
Sweden does not hand power to the winner automatically. The Speaker of the Riksdag leads talks and proposes a candidate for prime minister, who must survive a parliamentary vote. On September 18, the Speaker gave Andersson the task of forming a new government. Parliament could vote on a new prime minister from September 29 at the earliest.
Andersson, who briefly served as Sweden’s first female prime minister in 2021 and 2022, now has to hold together a bloc with real internal tensions:
- The Left Party wants a seat in cabinet in return for its support.
- The Centre Party has said it will oppose any government that gives the Left Party ministerial posts.
- Andersson has ruled out bringing the Left Party into government but still needs its votes in parliament.
That puzzle points toward a Social Democrat-led government, possibly with the Greens, that relies on case-by-case backing from the Left and Centre parties. Minority governments of this kind are common in Scandinavia, but a three-seat cushion leaves little room for defections on budgets or contested legislation.
Why the result matters beyond Sweden
The election is being read across Europe as a test of how far right-populist parties can grow once they move close to power. The Sweden Democrats chose to support Kristersson’s government from outside rather than join it, and their first setback in 16 years will be studied by strategists in other countries where similar arrangements exist.
It also comes at a difficult moment for European economies. Energy prices remain elevated because of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and household budgets across the region have felt the squeeze. Whoever governs in Stockholm will have to manage those pressures with a parliament split almost exactly down the middle.
The bottom line
Sweden’s voters have handed the left a mandate, but only just. Expect the next few weeks to be dominated by negotiations over who sits in cabinet and who supports from the benches. For more coverage of elections and governments around the world, visit our Politics section.