Brazil’s presidential race is heading to a second round, and the incumbent is behind. In the October 4 first round, senator Flávio Bolsonaro won about 47% of the vote, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 45.1%.
Because no candidate passed 50%, the two will meet in a runoff on Sunday, October 25. Final polls had shown Lula leading by about three points, so the result surprised many observers.
First-round results
- Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party): 47%
- Lula (Workers’ Party): 45.1%
- Ten other candidates: nearly 8% combined
- Turnout: about 79%, with roughly 30 million registered voters staying home
Who are the candidates?
Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and leads the Liberal Party. His father is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Flávio has pledged to seek a congressional amnesty, or failing that a pardon, for his father and others convicted over the January 2023 riots in Brasília.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. He led Brazil from 2003 to 2011, was jailed in 2018 and 2019 on corruption convictions that were later annulled, and returned to power by narrowly defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.
Congress tilts right
The Liberal Party became the largest force in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies with 121 seats, compared with 70 for Lula’s Workers’ Party. Several Bolsonaro family members also won seats, including Michelle Bolsonaro in the Senate for the Federal District.
Why Bolsonaro starts as favourite
- Most of the eliminated candidates were centre-right, so their voters are more likely to back Bolsonaro.
- Analysts note that no first-round runner-up has won Brazil’s presidency since the return of direct elections in 1989.
- Brazil’s currency and stock market rose after the first round, reflecting investor hopes for a more business-friendly government.
Lula’s path depends on turning out voters who abstained and winning back moderates worried about the Bolsonaro family’s record.
The issues deciding the vote
- Crime and security: In a September Quaest survey, 28% of Brazilians named violence as the country’s biggest problem.
- Cost of living: A third of voters said their income had not risen over the past year.
- Corruption: A multibillion-dollar banking fraud scandal is in the headlines, and court documents unsealed in September implicated Flávio Bolsonaro in the investigation.
- Foreign policy: Lula has accused Washington of using tariffs to interfere in Brazilian politics and has deepened ties with China and the BRICS group. Bolsonaro favours closer relations with the United States and has said he would reassess BRICS membership.
Why it matters
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and a major exporter of food, oil and minerals. The runoff will decide its stance on trade with the US and China, climate policy in the Amazon and the fate of a former president in prison.
Follow our election coverage in the Politics section.