If it feels as though every commercial break is a campaign ad, the numbers back you up. Media tracking firm AdImpact now projects that political advertising in the 2025–2026 election cycle will reach a record $11.6 billion, making these the most expensive midterm elections in US history. The updated forecast, released in June, raised the firm’s earlier estimate of $10.8 billion.
How the total has grown
When AdImpact published its first projection in September 2025, it already expected the cycle to beat the 2022 midterms by more than 20 percent. Its June 2026 update raised the forecast again as the cycle’s most competitive races took shape.
Where the money goes
- Congress: House and Senate contests together account for about $5 billion, roughly half of all spending. AdImpact’s earlier report projected a record of more than $2 billion for House races alone, the first time that milestone has been reached.
- Governors: about $1.9 billion was projected for gubernatorial contests, with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin expected to account for nearly a third.
- Down-ballot: state legislative races, ballot measures and other contests were projected at about $3.9 billion, roughly a third of the total.
The channel mix
Broadcast television still captures the biggest slice, about half of all political ad dollars in AdImpact’s earlier projection, because local TV reaches older voters who turn out reliably. The fastest-growing channel is connected TV, ads delivered through streaming services, which AdImpact projects at about $2.5 billion this cycle. CTV lets campaigns target specific households and districts with far less waste than traditional broadcast buys. Radio’s share continues to shrink.
The most expensive states
California was expected to top $1 billion in political advertising, driven by statewide races and ballot measures. Georgia, Michigan, New York, North Carolina and Texas were each projected to draw $500 million or more.
What it means for everyone else
Record political demand has knock-on effects for commercial advertisers. In the final weeks before an election, local TV inventory in battleground markets becomes scarce and expensive, and brands often shift budgets to streaming, social or later dates. Retailers planning early holiday campaigns in swing states should expect to pay more for reach.
What to watch
- Final spending totals after the November 3 election.
- How much of the CTV growth came from smaller down-ballot campaigns.
- Whether AI-generated political ads prompt new disclosure rules.
For more on the business of advertising, visit our Marketing section, and follow the races in our Politics section.