Planning a trip for the winter holidays? Expect to pay more than you did last year. Since the war with Iran disrupted oil and refined fuel supplies in late February, airlines around the world have been passing higher jet fuel costs on to passengers through higher fares, new surcharges and fewer flights. With crude oil climbing back above $105 a barrel in early October, relief is not yet in sight.
How airlines have responded
Carriers have taken different approaches, but the direction is the same. Among the measures reported this year:
- United Airlines trimmed capacity by about 5 percent for 2026, cancelled some off-peak flights, and its chief executive warned ticket prices could rise 15 to 20 percent.
- Lufthansa planned to cancel 20,000 flights through October, mostly short-haul, to save around 40,000 tonnes of jet fuel.
- Air France-KLM raised long-haul economy fares by €50 per round trip.
- Virgin Atlantic increased fuel surcharges by £50 in economy, £180 in premium economy and £360 in business, and cut some winter routes.
- Air Canada suspended some routes, including New York JFK to Toronto and Montreal until late October.
- Delta and Qantas reduced planned capacity, while American Airlines estimated an extra $4 billion in fuel expenses.
The pressure has also claimed at least one casualty: US budget carrier Spirit Airlines ceased operations in May, citing fuel costs.
Surcharges are tracking fuel prices
Many Asian airlines set fuel surcharges on a fixed schedule linked to jet fuel prices. Japan Airlines, for example, based its surcharge for tickets issued in September and October on an average Singapore jet fuel price of $132.50 a barrel during June and July. The level was held one notch lower than the formula implied thanks to an emergency government subsidy. Earlier in the year, JAL’s surcharge on flights between Japan and North America almost doubled, from $164 to $351.
Seven ways to save on winter flights
- Compare total fares, including surcharges and taxes, rather than headline base prices.
- Book sooner. With fewer seats available, last-minute bargains are less likely on popular routes.
- Be flexible on dates. Midweek departures and the days just before peak holiday periods are often cheaper.
- Consider carriers without surcharges. Some budget airlines have chosen not to add separate fuel charges.
- Use points carefully. Award tickets on some programmes still carry fuel surcharges, so compare cash and points prices.
- Check alternative airports, where competition may be stronger.
- Buy flexible fares or insurance if schedules could change, since airlines are still adjusting timetables.
The outlook
Fuel accounts for a large share of an airline’s costs, so fares are unlikely to ease until oil prices fall and refinery output recovers. A ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz would be the clearest trigger. Until then, planning ahead is the best defence. Follow travel costs and rules in our Travel section and energy markets in our Finance section.